Derby County
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 610 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Derby County drew 162 where the draw model expected 168.8 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 163.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 30 Jan 2026 → 01 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 03 Nov 2001 → 23 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 01 Aug 1975 → 31 Aug 1976 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 12 Apr 2004 → 22 Sep 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 16 Dec 2020 → 23 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 16 Oct 2010 → 01 Jan 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 05 Mar 2003 → 12 Aug 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 22 Sep 1993 → 27 Nov 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 23 Apr 2011 → 24 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 03 May 1997 → 15 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 1112 | 294 | 26.4% | 0 | 18 |
| FA Cup | 359 | 73 | 20.3% | 1 | 7 |
| Premier League | 266 | 70 | 26.3% | 6 | 17 |
| League Cup | 194 | 46 | 23.7% | 1 | 6 |
| League One | 92 | 21 | 22.8% | 3 | 10 |
| Club Friendlies | 21 | 2 | 9.5% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 | 4 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 4 | 10.5% | 22 |
| 2025 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 10 |
| 2024 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2023 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 8 |
| 2022 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 11 |
| 2020 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 7 |
| 2019 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 8 |
| 2018 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 12 |
| 2017 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 8 |
| 2016 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 53 | 18 | 34.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 12 |
| 2013 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2012 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 13 |
| 2010 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 13 |
| 2009 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2008 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 7 |
| 2007 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 7 |
| 2006 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 51 | 20 | 39.2% | 8 |
| 2004 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 15 |
| 2003 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 14 |
| 2002 | 47 | 6 | 12.8% | 12 |
| 2001 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2000 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 1998 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 9 |
| 1997 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 13 |
| 1996 | 45 | 18 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 1995 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 8 |
| 1994 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 6 |
| 1993 | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | 14 |
| 1992 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1991 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1986 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1985 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1984 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1978 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1976 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 10 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1974 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1973 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1972 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1969 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1968 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1950 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1948 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1947 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1933 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1932 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1928 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1906 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1905 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1903 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1902 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1898 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1897 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1896 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1891 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1890 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1889 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1888 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1886 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1885 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1884 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Derby County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Wed, 14 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 14 Oct 18:45 |
Queens Park Rangers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Derby County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Sheffield United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Millwall
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Tue, 03 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Nov 19:45 |
Derby County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Fri, 06 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Nov 20:00 |
Derby County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.