What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 178 matches (Aug 2016 – Sep 2026), GD Chaves drew 51 where the draw model expected 44.9 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 45.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 29 Apr 2023 → 18 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 24 Aug 1997 → 23 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 22 Apr 2018 → 21 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 06 Nov 1998 → 16 Jan 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 02 Feb 1997 → 13 Apr 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 20 Jan 1996 → 24 Mar 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 05 Oct 2018 → 23 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 04 Feb 2018 → 31 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 13 Dec 1997 → 08 Feb 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 28 Oct 2023 → 29 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 340 | 87 | 25.6% | 4 | 10 |
| Taça de Portugal | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Europa League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2023 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2022 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2019 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 9 |
| 2017 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 4 |
| 2016 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 4 |
| 1999 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 1998 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 1997 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 1996 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 9 |
| 1995 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 1994 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 1987 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 16 Oct 19:00 |
GD Chaves
|
vs | Os Marialvas | – / – / – | 22.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.