Casa Pia AC
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 161 matches (Oct 2021 – Sep 2026), Casa Pia AC drew 40 where the draw model expected 40.5 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 40.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 11 Sep 2022 → 28 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 12 Jan 2025 → 29 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 21 Apr 2024 → 14 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 02 Dec 2023 → 29 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 10 May 2025 → 14 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 18 Jul 2026 → 30 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 25 Feb 2023 → 09 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 12 Jan 2023 → 04 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 23 Apr 2026 → 11 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 22 Nov 2025 → 06 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 143 | 38 | 26.6% | 2 | 10 |
| Taça de Portugal | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27 | 8 | 29.6% | 6 |
| 2025 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 11 |
| 2024 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 10 |
| 2023 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2022 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 12 |
| 2021 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:30 |
Casa Pia AC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
Alpendorada
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:30 |
CF Estrela da Amadora
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.4% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 20:15 |
Casa Pia AC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.2% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 18:00 |
Alverca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.