Cardiff City
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 588 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Cardiff City drew 143 where the draw model expected 159.9 from those particular fixtures — about 17 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 157.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 19 Jan 2019 → 21 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 20 Sep 2025 → 29 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 05 Nov 1996 → 11 Feb 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 24 Feb 2024 → 17 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 28 Aug 2018 → 22 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 25 Aug 2012 → 24 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 29 Dec 2001 → 02 Mar 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 25 Nov 2020 → 20 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 21 Aug 2021 → 23 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 12 Aug 2023 → 03 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 928 | 263 | 28.3% | 2 | 16 |
| League One | 276 | 79 | 28.6% | 4 | 15 |
| FA Cup | 264 | 69 | 26.1% | 1 | 6 |
| League Two | 230 | 71 | 30.9% | 3 | 16 |
| League Cup | 170 | 26 | 15.3% | 2 | 6 |
| Premier League | 76 | 13 | 17.1% | 16 | 16 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 8 |
| 2025 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 19 |
| 2024 | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | 16 |
| 2023 | 51 | 9 | 17.7% | 11 |
| 2022 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 10 |
| 2021 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 12 |
| 2020 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2019 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 20 |
| 2018 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 16 |
| 2017 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 54 | 19 | 35.2% | 7 |
| 2014 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 8 |
| 2013 | 43 | 16 | 37.2% | 5 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 16 |
| 2011 | 54 | 19 | 35.2% | 5 |
| 2010 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2009 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 11 |
| 2008 | 56 | 18 | 32.1% | 6 |
| 2007 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2006 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 6 |
| 2005 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 7 |
| 2004 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 8 |
| 2002 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 13 |
| 2001 | 54 | 17 | 31.5% | 7 |
| 2000 | 49 | 18 | 36.7% | 9 |
| 1999 | 57 | 24 | 42.1% | 4 |
| 1998 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 10 |
| 1997 | 51 | 22 | 43.1% | 7 |
| 1996 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 11 |
| 1995 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 7 |
| 1994 | 56 | 13 | 23.2% | 10 |
| 1993 | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 6 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1988 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1987 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1986 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1985 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1981 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1976 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 1 |
| 1972 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1971 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1968 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1967 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1964 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1963 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1931 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1926 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1925 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1924 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1923 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1922 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1921 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1920 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Blackburn Rovers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 18:45 |
Cardiff City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 11:30 |
Middlesbrough
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Cardiff City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.5% |
|
| Wed, 04 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Nov 19:45 |
Cardiff City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Cardiff City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.