Arminia Bielefeld
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 438 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), Arminia Bielefeld drew 143 where the draw model expected 116.0 from those particular fixtures — about 27 more, or 2.9 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 8 times running. A flat league average would have expected 116.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 19 Apr 1997 → 22 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 09 Sep 2022 → 26 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 26 Sep 2020 → 10 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 23 Aug 2013 → 02 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 24 Jan 2010 → 19 Apr 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 14 Oct 2016 → 03 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 31 Oct 2007 → 23 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 18 Jan 2025 → 15 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 22 Nov 2014 → 04 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 25 Sep 2004 → 28 Nov 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 516 | 149 | 28.9% | 0 | 15 |
| Bundesliga | 374 | 106 | 28.3% | 0 | 23 |
| 3. Liga | 190 | 54 | 28.4% | 2 | 10 |
| DFB-Pokal | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 0 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26 | 9 | 34.6% | 5 |
| 2025 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2024 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 5 |
| 2022 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 11 |
| 2021 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2020 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 12 |
| 2019 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 4 |
| 2018 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 7 |
| 2017 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2016 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 10 |
| 2015 | 39 | 17 | 43.6% | 6 |
| 2014 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2013 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 13 |
| 2012 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 9 |
| 2011 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 2010 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2009 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2008 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 5 |
| 2007 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 9 |
| 2006 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 7 |
| 2005 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2004 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2002 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 8 |
| 2001 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 9 |
| 2000 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 6 |
| 1998 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 10 |
| 1997 | 37 | 4 | 10.8% | 23 |
| 1996 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 7 |
| 1995 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 10 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 11:30 |
VfL Bochum
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 11:30 |
Arminia Bielefeld
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:00 |
Hertha BSC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.7% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 17:30 |
Arminia Bielefeld
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.7% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 12:00 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.