What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 563 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Basel drew 138 where the draw model expected 118.2 from those particular fixtures — about 20 more, or 2.1 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 135.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 09 Sep 2009 → 03 Nov 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 19 Apr 2019 → 14 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 04 May 2014 → 23 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 18 Nov 2017 → 11 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 29 May 2015 → 26 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 28 Sep 2025 → 29 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 27 Sep 2020 → 16 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 25 Nov 2019 → 15 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 16 May 2016 → 10 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 10 Aug 2005 → 22 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super League | 519 | 136 | 26.2% | 4 | 22 |
| Swiss Cup | 401 | 68 | 17.0% | 2 | 11 |
| UEFA Europa League | 125 | 25 | 20.0% | 8 | 9 |
| UEFA Champions League | 98 | 19 | 19.4% | 8 | 10 |
| UEFA Conference League | 22 | 8 | 36.4% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 7 |
| 2025 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 13 |
| 2024 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 8 |
| 2022 | 44 | 17 | 38.6% | 7 |
| 2021 | 50 | 17 | 34.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 2019 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 17 |
| 2018 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 7 |
| 2017 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2016 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 2015 | 53 | 8 | 15.1% | 14 |
| 2014 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 17 |
| 2013 | 56 | 20 | 35.7% | 6 |
| 2012 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 2011 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 12 |
| 2009 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2008 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2007 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 9 |
| 2006 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2005 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 11 |
| 2004 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 2003 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 9 |
| 2002 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2001 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2000 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1997 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1996 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1994 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1991 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1981 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1977 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1976 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1974 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1972 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1970 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1968 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1967 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1965 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1963 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1962 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1946 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1944 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1943 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1942 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1941 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1936 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1933 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1932 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1931 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1929 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1925 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:30 |
Winterthur
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.5% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.