What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 680 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Arsenal drew 130 where the draw model expected 149.5 from those particular fixtures — about 20 fewer, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 166.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35 | 10 Feb 2022 → 20 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 21 | 26 Dec 2014 → 11 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 20 | 25 Sep 2010 → 27 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 22 Apr 2018 → 22 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 14 Jan 2018 → 15 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 10 Jan 2004 → 20 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 12 Mar 2002 → 18 Aug 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 22 Oct 2021 → 09 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 15 | 10 Sep 2002 → 09 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 29 Aug 2015 → 04 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1267 | 305 | 24.1% | 16 | 27 |
| FA Cup | 458 | 110 | 24.0% | 4 | 6 |
| League Cup | 255 | 52 | 20.4% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Champions League | 235 | 51 | 21.7% | 1 | 12 |
| UEFA Europa League | 84 | 15 | 17.9% | 0 | 9 |
| Club Friendlies | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 0 | 5 |
| FA Community Shield | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 2 | 7 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 2025 | 63 | 14 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2024 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2023 | 58 | 14 | 24.1% | 11 |
| 2022 | 52 | 3 | 5.8% | 35 |
| 2021 | 59 | 12 | 20.3% | 13 |
| 2020 | 53 | 9 | 17.0% | 12 |
| 2019 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 13 |
| 2018 | 58 | 10 | 17.2% | 18 |
| 2017 | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 13 |
| 2016 | 56 | 16 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2015 | 57 | 7 | 12.3% | 19 |
| 2014 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2013 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 11 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 14 |
| 2011 | 57 | 15 | 26.3% | 10 |
| 2010 | 53 | 9 | 17.0% | 20 |
| 2009 | 60 | 12 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 2008 | 58 | 16 | 27.6% | 12 |
| 2007 | 59 | 16 | 27.1% | 12 |
| 2006 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 9 |
| 2005 | 56 | 11 | 19.6% | 7 |
| 2004 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 16 |
| 2003 | 57 | 18 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2002 | 60 | 11 | 18.3% | 16 |
| 2001 | 60 | 11 | 18.3% | 10 |
| 2000 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 6 |
| 1999 | 60 | 13 | 21.7% | 9 |
| 1998 | 59 | 17 | 28.8% | 14 |
| 1997 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 8 |
| 1996 | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 6 |
| 1995 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 13 |
| 1994 | 58 | 22 | 37.9% | 11 |
| 1993 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 6 |
| 1992 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 4 |
| 1990 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1988 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 1987 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1986 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 2 |
| 1985 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 1982 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1981 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1980 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 28 | 13 | 46.4% | 5 |
| 1978 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 1977 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1976 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1975 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1972 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 1970 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1969 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 6 |
| 1968 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 1967 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1966 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1959 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1956 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1952 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1951 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1936 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1935 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1934 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1931 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1929 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1927 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1926 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1924 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1906 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1905 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1899 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1896 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1891 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 11:30 |
Arsenal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 19:00 |
Arsenal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.4% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 15:30 |
Nottingham Forest
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Wed, 21 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 21 Oct 19:00 |
FC Bayern München
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Arsenal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.3% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 20:00 |
Fleetwood Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 16:30 |
Liverpool
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Wed, 04 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Nov 20:00 |
SK Slavia Praha
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.1% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Arsenal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 16.2% |
|
| Sun, 29 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 29 Nov 16:30 |
Arsenal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.