Arouca
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 285 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Arouca drew 75 where the draw model expected 71.3 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 71.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 16 Dec 2023 → 14 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 03 Jan 2026 → 24 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 04 Oct 2016 → 21 Jan 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 03 Mar 2014 → 10 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 12 May 2024 → 29 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 18 Oct 2025 → 14 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 17 Sep 2023 → 12 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 05 Feb 2017 → 02 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 07 Dec 2014 → 01 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 23 Apr 2023 → 13 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 309 | 79 | 25.6% | 0 | 16 |
| Taça de Portugal | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 2 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Europa League | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 15 |
| 2025 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 8 |
| 2024 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 15 |
| 2023 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2022 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 5 |
| 2021 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 4 |
| 2017 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 8 |
| 2016 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 9 |
| 2015 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 7 |
| 2014 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 10 |
| 2013 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 19:30 |
Arouca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
CF Os Belenenses
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.9% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 17:00 |
Alverca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 15:30 |
Arouca
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Fri, 06 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Nov 20:45 |
FC Famalicão
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.