Aberdeen
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 562 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Aberdeen drew 121 where the draw model expected 132.8 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 128.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 17 Dec 2016 → 27 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 29 Sep 2018 → 29 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 05 Oct 2013 → 18 Jan 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 09 May 2026 → 02 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 04 Oct 2014 → 10 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 22 Sep 2010 → 29 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 03 Apr 1999 → 18 Sep 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 18 Jan 2023 → 07 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 17 Sep 2022 → 28 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 02 Mar 2016 → 05 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Premiership | 1203 | 287 | 23.9% | 0 | 26 |
| Scottish Cup | 89 | 22 | 24.7% | 3 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 86 | 28 | 32.6% | 1 | 4 |
| Scottish League Cup | 77 | 12 | 15.6% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 4 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| UEFA Conference League | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 16 |
| 2025 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 8 |
| 2024 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 13 |
| 2023 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 14 |
| 2022 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 14 |
| 2021 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 9 |
| 2020 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 2019 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 12 |
| 2018 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 17 |
| 2017 | 51 | 5 | 9.8% | 23 |
| 2016 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 14 |
| 2015 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 51 | 9 | 17.7% | 12 |
| 2013 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 13 |
| 2012 | 48 | 17 | 35.4% | 9 |
| 2011 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 10 |
| 2010 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 15 |
| 2009 | 42 | 16 | 38.1% | 5 |
| 2008 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 10 |
| 2007 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2006 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 9 |
| 2005 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 11 |
| 2004 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 11 |
| 2003 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 11 |
| 2002 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2001 | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 12 |
| 2000 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 10 |
| 1999 | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | 15 |
| 1998 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 1997 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 7 |
| 1996 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 5 |
| 1995 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 9 |
| 1994 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1993 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1991 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1977 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 13:00 |
Dunfermline Athletic
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.8% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 13:00 |
Aberdeen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Aberdeen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Dundee United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Aberdeen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 17:30 |
Rangers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.5% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 17:45 |
Aberdeen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.