▦ FDB4
No-draw streak ‹ back to records
SCO · Club

Livingston

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
32
non-draws in a row
05 Apr 2016 → 28 Jan 2017
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 7.6 across these 32 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 7.8 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 5,980 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 26.73 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.03× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
02 Apr 2016 Livingston 0–0 Alloa Athletic D SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 05 Apr 2016 Hibernian 2–1 Livingston H SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 09 Apr 2016 Greenock Morton 2–1 Livingston H SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 23 Apr 2016 Queen of the South 3–1 Livingston H SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 26 Apr 2016 Livingston 1–0 Rangers H SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 01 May 2016 Livingston 0–1 Raith Rovers A SCO · Scottish Championship
☆ 16 Jul 2016 Livingston 2–3 St Mirren A SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 20 Jul 2016 Edinburgh City 0–3 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 26 Jul 2016 Livingston 0–2 Ayr United A SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 30 Jul 2016 Hamilton Academical 2–1 Livingston H SCO · Scottish League Cup
☆ 06 Aug 2016 Livingston 5–1 Stranraer H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 13 Aug 2016 Airdrieonians 2–4 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 20 Aug 2016 Livingston 4–1 Stenhousemuir H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 27 Aug 2016 Queen's Park 1–0 Livingston H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 10 Sep 2016 Alloa Athletic 1–3 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 17 Sep 2016 Livingston 2–1 Brechin City H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 24 Sep 2016 East Fife 3–1 Livingston H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 01 Oct 2016 Peterhead 1–2 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 15 Oct 2016 Livingston 1–2 Albion Rovers A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 22 Oct 2016 Livingston 3–1 Alloa Athletic H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 29 Oct 2016 Brechin City 0–3 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 05 Nov 2016 Livingston 3–1 East Fife H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 19 Nov 2016 Livingston 1–2 Peterhead A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 26 Nov 2016 Airdrieonians 1–2 Livingston A SCO · Scottish Cup
☆ 03 Dec 2016 Albion Rovers 0–1 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 10 Dec 2016 Stranraer 1–2 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 13 Dec 2016 Stenhousemuir 0–4 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 17 Dec 2016 Livingston 2–0 Airdrieonians H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 24 Dec 2016 Livingston 1–2 Queen's Park A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 31 Dec 2016 East Fife 2–1 Livingston H SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 07 Jan 2017 Peterhead 2–3 Livingston A SCO · Scottish League One
☆ 21 Jan 2017 Livingston 0–1 East Fife A SCO · Scottish Cup
☆ 28 Jan 2017 Livingston 3–0 Brechin City H SCO · Scottish League One
the draw that ended it
04 Feb 2017 Alloa Athletic 2–2 Livingston D SCO · Scottish League One

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