▦ FDB4
No-draw streak ‹ back to records
POR · Club

SL Benfica

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
37
non-draws in a row
18 Jul 2010 → 06 Mar 2011
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 7.3 across these 37 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 9.0 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 3,390 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 7.86 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.05× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
17 Jul 2010 SL Benfica 3–3 Groningen D ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 18 Jul 2010 Vitória de Guimarães 3–5 SL Benfica A ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 24 Jul 2010 SL Benfica 3–2 AS Monaco H ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 27 Jul 2010 SL Benfica 2–0 Sunderland H ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 30 Jul 2010 SL Benfica 4–1 Feyenoord H ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 01 Aug 2010 SL Benfica 4–1 Aston Villa H ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 03 Aug 2010 SL Benfica 0–1 Tottenham Hotspur A ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 15 Aug 2010 SL Benfica 1–2 Académica de Coimbra A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 21 Aug 2010 CD Nacional 2–1 SL Benfica H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 28 Aug 2010 SL Benfica 3–0 Vitória de Setúbal H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 10 Sep 2010 Vitória de Guimarães 2–1 SL Benfica H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 14 Sep 2010 SL Benfica 2–0 Hapoel Tel Aviv H ITL · UEFA Champions League Group stage
☆ 19 Sep 2010 SL Benfica 2–0 Sporting CP H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 25 Sep 2010 CS Marítimo 0–1 SL Benfica A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 29 Sep 2010 Schalke 04 2–0 SL Benfica H ITL · UEFA Champions League Group stage
☆ 03 Oct 2010 SL Benfica 1–0 SC Braga H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 20 Oct 2010 Olympique Lyonnais 2–0 SL Benfica H ITL · UEFA Champions League Group stage
☆ 24 Oct 2010 Portimonense SC 0–1 SL Benfica A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 29 Oct 2010 SL Benfica 2–0 FC Paços de Ferreira H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 02 Nov 2010 SL Benfica 4–3 Olympique Lyonnais H ITL · UEFA Champions League Group stage
☆ 07 Nov 2010 Porto 5–0 SL Benfica H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 14 Nov 2010 SL Benfica 4–0 Naval 1º de Maio H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 24 Nov 2010 Hapoel Tel Aviv 3–0 SL Benfica H ITL · UEFA Champions League Group stage
☆ 25 Nov 2010 SL Benfica 2–1 VfB Stuttgart H ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆ 28 Nov 2010 SC Beira-Mar 1–3 SL Benfica A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 03 Dec 2010 SL Benfica 2–0 SC Olhanense H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 07 Dec 2010 SL Benfica 1–2 Schalke 04 A ITL · UEFA Champions League Group stage
☆ 09 Dec 2010 VfB Stuttgart 0–2 SL Benfica A ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆ 18 Dec 2010 SL Benfica 5–2 Rio Ave H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 09 Jan 2011 União de Leiria 0–3 SL Benfica A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 16 Jan 2011 Académica de Coimbra 0–1 SL Benfica A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 22 Jan 2011 SL Benfica 4–2 CD Nacional H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 06 Feb 2011 Vitória de Setúbal 0–2 SL Benfica A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 13 Feb 2011 SL Benfica 3–0 Vitória de Guimarães H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 21 Feb 2011 Sporting CP 0–2 SL Benfica A POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 27 Feb 2011 SL Benfica 2–1 CS Marítimo H POR · Primeira Liga
☆ 05 Mar 2011 SL Benfica 2–1 Paris Saint-Germain H ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆ 06 Mar 2011 SC Braga 2–1 SL Benfica H POR · Primeira Liga
the draw that ended it
13 Mar 2011 SL Benfica 1–1 Portimonense SC D POR · Primeira Liga

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