| Figure | SL Benfica | Aston Villa | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw run | 4 | 5 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max N | 18 | 19 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debt | 0.71 | 1.47 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50 | 16.0% | 30.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100 | 19.0% | 29.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all time | 23.4% | 25.3% | share of every match drawn |
| Σ N | 9 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ E | 2.18 | both sides' draw debt added | |
These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 1 Aug 2010, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.