▦ FDB4
No-draw streak ‹ back to records
ENG · Club

Arsenal

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
35
non-draws in a row
10 Feb 2022 → 20 Oct 2022
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 8.3 across these 35 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 8.5 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 13,160 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 12.70 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.05× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
23 Jan 2022 Arsenal 0–0 Burnley D ENG · Premier League
☆ 10 Feb 2022 Wolverhampton Wanderers 0–1 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 19 Feb 2022 Arsenal 2–1 Brentford H ENG · Premier League
☆ 24 Feb 2022 Arsenal 2–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers H ENG · Premier League
☆ 06 Mar 2022 Watford 2–3 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 13 Mar 2022 Arsenal 2–0 Leicester City H ENG · Premier League
☆ 16 Mar 2022 Arsenal 0–2 Liverpool A ENG · Premier League
☆ 19 Mar 2022 Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 04 Apr 2022 Crystal Palace 3–0 Arsenal H ENG · Premier League
☆ 09 Apr 2022 Arsenal 1–2 Brighton & Hove Albion A ENG · Premier League
☆ 16 Apr 2022 Southampton 1–0 Arsenal H ENG · Premier League
☆ 20 Apr 2022 Chelsea 2–4 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 23 Apr 2022 Arsenal 3–1 Manchester United H ENG · Premier League
☆ 01 May 2022 West Ham United 1–2 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 08 May 2022 Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United H ENG · Premier League
☆ 12 May 2022 Tottenham Hotspur 3–0 Arsenal H ENG · Premier League
☆ 16 May 2022 Newcastle United 2–0 Arsenal H ENG · Premier League
☆ 22 May 2022 Arsenal 5–1 Everton H ENG · Premier League
☆ 08 Jul 2022 1. FC Nürnberg 3–5 Arsenal A ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 16 Jul 2022 Arsenal 2–0 Everton H ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 21 Jul 2022 Orlando City SC 1–3 Arsenal A ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 24 Jul 2022 Arsenal 4–0 Chelsea H ITL · Club Friendlies
☆ 05 Aug 2022 Crystal Palace 0–2 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 13 Aug 2022 Arsenal 4–2 Leicester City H ENG · Premier League
☆ 20 Aug 2022 Bournemouth 0–3 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 27 Aug 2022 Arsenal 2–1 Fulham H ENG · Premier League
☆ 31 Aug 2022 Arsenal 2–1 Aston Villa H ENG · Premier League
☆ 04 Sep 2022 Manchester United 3–1 Arsenal H ENG · Premier League
☆ 08 Sep 2022 FC Zürich 1–2 Arsenal A ITL · UEFA Europa League Group stage
☆ 18 Sep 2022 Brentford 0–3 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 01 Oct 2022 Arsenal 3–1 Tottenham Hotspur H ENG · Premier League
☆ 06 Oct 2022 Arsenal 3–0 FK Bodø/Glimt H ITL · UEFA Europa League Group stage
☆ 09 Oct 2022 Arsenal 3–2 Liverpool H ENG · Premier League
☆ 13 Oct 2022 FK Bodø/Glimt 0–1 Arsenal A ITL · UEFA Europa League Group stage
☆ 16 Oct 2022 Leeds United 0–1 Arsenal A ENG · Premier League
☆ 20 Oct 2022 Arsenal 1–0 PSV Eindhoven H ITL · UEFA Europa League Group stage
the draw that ended it
23 Oct 2022 Southampton 1–1 Arsenal D ENG · Premier League

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