| Figure | Sporting Charleroi | KRC Genk | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 13 | 7 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 15 | 17 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 2.73 | 1.79 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 18.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 23.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 24.6% | 24.1% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.563 | 0.354 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 58 | 325 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 20 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 4.52 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.917 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 8 | +24 | 32 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 28 |
| 3 | KAA Gent | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 | Sporting Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 5 | RSC Anderlecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 6 | Lommel SK | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 | KRC Genk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 18 |
| 8 | Standard Liège | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 18 |
| 9 | KVC Westerlo | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | SV Zulte Waregem | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | KV Mechelen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
| 12 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Sint-Truidense VV | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Royal Antwerp | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | KSK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 | Cercle Brugge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Waasland-Beveren | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | RAAL La Louvière | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 19 | KV Kortrijk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 7 |