| Figure | KV Kortrijk | Lommel SK | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 0 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 20 | 11 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.00 | 0.20 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 18.0% | 16.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 20.0% | 22.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 21.9% | 25.8% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.060 | 0.115 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,900 | 1,389 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 1 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.20 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.176 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 27 |
| 2 | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 7 | +22 | 26 |
| 3 | KAA Gent | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sporting Charleroi | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 24 |
| 5 | RSC Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 | KRC Genk | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | Lommel SK | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 8 | KVC Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | SV Zulte Waregem | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Standard Liège | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Royal Antwerp | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | KSK Beveren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | KV Mechelen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | Sint-Truidense VV | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Waasland-Beveren | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | RAAL La Louvière | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | KV Kortrijk | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 7 |
| 19 | Cercle Brugge | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 6 |