| Figure | Cesena | Palermo | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 0 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 15 | 12 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.00 | 0.27 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 34.0% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 30.0% | 27.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 32.3% | 30.2% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.096 | 0.132 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,568 | 1,241 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 1 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.27 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.227 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 26 |
| 2 | Modena | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 20 |
| 3 | Ascoli Calcio | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Mantova 1911 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | US Avellino | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 | Benevento Calcio | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 7 | Hellas Verona | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 15 |
| 8 | Pisa SC | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 | Calcio Padova | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | FC Südtirol | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | SS Juve Stabia | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | US Cremonese | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Cesena | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | SS Arezzo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 11 |
| 15 | Virtus Entella | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Carrarese Calcio | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 | LR Vicenza | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Empoli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | UC Sampdoria | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | US Catanzaro | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |