Würzburger Kickers
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 275 matches (Jul 2015 – Oct 2026), Würzburger Kickers drew 78 where the draw model expected 76.1 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 75.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 30 Sep 2017 → 10 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 18 Oct 2020 → 02 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 20 Apr 2019 → 02 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 23 Jan 2021 → 05 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 12 May 2018 → 16 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 14 Aug 2026 → 18 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 07 Feb 2022 → 18 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 17 Aug 2019 → 07 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 22 Dec 2018 → 04 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 02 Aug 2017 → 16 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 197 | 53 | 26.9% | 6 | 16 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 68 | 20 | 29.4% | 0 | 10 |
| DFB-Pokal | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2024 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2022 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2021 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2020 | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 9 |
| 2019 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 9 |
| 2018 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 8 |
| 2017 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 10 |
| 2016 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 4 |
| 2015 | 22 | 11 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.