Rayo Vallecano
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 529 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Rayo Vallecano drew 151 where the draw model expected 141.1 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 142.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 26 Nov 2011 → 25 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 16 Feb 1997 → 22 Jun 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 20 Dec 2014 → 26 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 09 Apr 2023 → 15 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 17 Jan 1998 → 12 Apr 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 14 Sep 2014 → 13 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 19 Aug 2013 → 24 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 07 Apr 2018 → 22 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 16 Sep 2001 → 02 Dec 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 30 Nov 2012 → 24 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 699 | 166 | 23.8% | 0 | 31 |
| Segunda División | 420 | 128 | 30.5% | 4 | 15 |
| Copa del Rey | 62 | 20 | 32.3% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Conference League | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 11 | 11 |
| UEFA Europa League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2025 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 7 |
| 2024 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 16 |
| 2022 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 8 |
| 2021 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 |
| 2020 | 45 | 17 | 37.8% | 7 |
| 2019 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 8 |
| 2018 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 13 |
| 2017 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 6 |
| 2016 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 5 |
| 2015 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 17 |
| 2014 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 14 |
| 2013 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 14 |
| 2012 | 41 | 2 | 4.9% | 24 |
| 2011 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 7 |
| 2010 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 11 |
| 2009 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 9 |
| 2008 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 8 |
| 2007 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2006 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2004 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 7 |
| 2003 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 9 |
| 2002 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2001 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 13 |
| 2000 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 1999 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 1998 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 15 |
| 1997 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 20 |
| 1996 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 12 |
| 1995 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 1994 | 22 | 11 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 12:00 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Mon, 19 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 19 Oct 19:00 |
Getafe CF
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 12:00 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.7% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:15 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 20:00 |
Real Sociedad
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.