ES Troyes AC
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 448 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), ES Troyes AC drew 102 where the draw model expected 128.1 from those particular fixtures — about 26 fewer, or 2.7 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 7 times running. A flat league average would have expected 131.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 02 Jan 2016 → 07 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 06 Dec 2024 → 28 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 30 Nov 2007 → 07 Apr 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 29 May 1999 → 10 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 22 Oct 2017 → 20 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 22 Nov 2019 → 28 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 25 Oct 2014 → 30 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 03 Dec 1999 → 25 Mar 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 04 Apr 2014 → 18 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 16 Dec 2011 → 02 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 2 | 674 | 177 | 26.3% | 5 | 15 |
| Ligue 1 | 411 | 111 | 27.0% | 4 | 18 |
| Coupe de France | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 3 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 0 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 9 |
| 2025 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 14 |
| 2024 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2023 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2022 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 5 |
| 2021 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2020 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 2019 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2018 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 9 |
| 2017 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 10 |
| 2016 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 21 |
| 2015 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 10 |
| 2014 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 11 |
| 2013 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 10 |
| 2012 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 9 |
| 2011 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 11 |
| 2010 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2009 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 6 |
| 2008 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 14 |
| 2007 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 8 |
| 2006 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 5 |
| 2005 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2004 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2003 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 5 |
| 2002 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 2000 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 10 |
| 1999 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 16 |
| 1998 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 7 |
| 1997 | 44 | 18 | 40.9% | 6 |
| 1996 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 5 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 18:45 |
ES Troyes AC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 18:45 |
ES Troyes AC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 15:15 |
Toulouse
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 19:45 |
ES Troyes AC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 19:45 |
Paris Saint-Germain
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 16.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.