Toulouse
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 480 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Toulouse drew 128 where the draw model expected 127.6 from those particular fixtures — about 0 more, or 0.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 131.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 21 Jan 2023 → 02 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 07 Nov 2010 → 12 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 05 Oct 2019 → 26 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 29 Jan 2022 → 16 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 02 Apr 2005 → 13 Aug 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 01 Oct 2006 → 23 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 20 Mar 1999 → 13 Aug 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 10 Feb 2021 → 07 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 05 Oct 2014 → 14 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 11 Apr 1997 → 09 Aug 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 921 | 272 | 29.5% | 1 | 16 |
| Ligue 2 | 194 | 47 | 24.2% | 4 | 11 |
| Coupe de France | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 5 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Trophée des Champions | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 2025 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2024 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 7 |
| 2023 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 19 |
| 2022 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 12 |
| 2021 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 10 |
| 2020 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2019 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2018 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 9 |
| 2017 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 6 |
| 2016 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 7 |
| 2015 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 6 |
| 2014 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2013 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2011 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 9 |
| 2010 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 2009 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 9 |
| 2008 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 5 |
| 2007 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2006 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 11 |
| 2005 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 12 |
| 2004 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2003 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 2002 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 7 |
| 2001 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 11 |
| 1998 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1997 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 10 |
| 1996 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 10 |
| 1994 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1993 | 22 | 9 | 40.9% | 5 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 18:45 |
AS Monaco
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 16 Oct 18:45 |
Le Mans
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 15:15 |
Toulouse
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.9% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 19:45 |
Olympique de Marseille
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.4% |
|
| Fri, 06 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Nov 19:45 |
Toulouse
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.