CD Tondela
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 290 matches (Aug 2015 – Sep 2026), CD Tondela drew 67 where the draw model expected 72.0 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 73.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 11 May 2021 → 03 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 27 Dec 2020 → 13 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 28 Oct 2018 → 13 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 30 Oct 2015 → 10 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 29 Nov 2025 → 25 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 14 Jan 2018 → 04 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 22 Oct 2017 → 23 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 01 Apr 2017 → 21 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 22 Jan 2022 → 03 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 05 Oct 2019 → 16 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 272 | 62 | 22.8% | 3 | 19 |
| Taça de Portugal | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23 | 8 | 34.8% | 4 |
| 2025 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 4 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 41 | 3 | 7.3% | 21 |
| 2020 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2018 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 5 |
| 2015 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
CD Tondela
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.