1. FC Saarbrücken
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 251 matches (Aug 2016 – Oct 2026), 1. FC Saarbrücken drew 78 where the draw model expected 67.7 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 68.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 23 Nov 2013 → 20 Apr 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 27 Nov 2016 → 20 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 10 Mar 2006 → 24 Oct 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 15 Jan 2022 → 19 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 04 May 2001 → 30 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 18 Jan 2025 → 14 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 26 Sep 2020 → 13 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 28 Apr 2012 → 25 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 02 Apr 2011 → 14 May 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 14 Nov 2010 → 15 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 349 | 103 | 29.5% | 1 | 19 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 208 | 49 | 23.6% | 12 | 12 |
| Regionalliga Südwest | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 16 | 16 |
| DFB-Pokal | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 0 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 10 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2025 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 7 |
| 2023 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 4 |
| 2022 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2021 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 9 |
| 2019 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 13 |
| 2016 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 4 |
| 2014 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 14 |
| 2013 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 6 |
| 2012 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 9 |
| 2011 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 9 |
| 2010 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2006 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 14 |
| 2005 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 7 |
| 2004 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2002 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 8 |
| 2001 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 2000 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 1995 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 1993 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 9 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.