Molde FK
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 474 matches (Apr 2015 – Sep 2026), Molde FK drew 80 where the draw model expected 95.2 from those particular fixtures — about 15 fewer, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 106.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 05 Jul 2020 → 05 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 17 Apr 2011 → 07 Aug 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 12 Jun 2005 → 02 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 13 May 2003 → 19 Aug 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 31 Aug 2014 → 22 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 04 Oct 2013 → 07 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 11 Sep 2022 → 12 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 07 Apr 2019 → 22 Jun 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 23 Apr 2023 → 28 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 08 Jun 1977 → 08 Oct 1977 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliteserien | 1257 | 274 | 21.8% | 6 | 18 |
| Norwegian Football Cup | 318 | 40 | 12.6% | 2 | 11 |
| UEFA Europa League | 82 | 19 | 23.2% | 1 | 8 |
| 1. divisjon | 52 | 6 | 11.5% | 8 | 12 |
| UEFA Conference League | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 5 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 8 |
| 2025 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 10 |
| 2024 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 9 |
| 2023 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 14 |
| 2022 | 43 | 5 | 11.6% | 14 |
| 2021 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 2020 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | 21 |
| 2019 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 15 |
| 2018 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 8 |
| 2017 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2016 | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 2015 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2014 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 12 |
| 2013 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2012 | 44 | 6 | 13.6% | 8 |
| 2011 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 20 |
| 2010 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 2009 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 2008 | 32 | 13 | 40.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | 13 |
| 2006 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 7 |
| 2005 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 18 |
| 2004 | 29 | 11 | 37.9% | 3 |
| 2003 | 35 | 4 | 11.4% | 18 |
| 2002 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 11 |
| 2001 | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2000 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 13 |
| 1999 | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 12 |
| 1998 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 12 |
| 1997 | 28 | 6 | 21.4% | 12 |
| 1996 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 7 |
| 1995 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 1994 | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | 10 |
| 1993 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 1992 | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | 9 |
| 1991 | 26 | 6 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 1990 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 12 |
| 1989 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 8 |
| 1988 | 29 | 12 | 41.4% | 6 |
| 1987 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 8 |
| 1986 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 10 |
| 1985 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 5 |
| 1984 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 5 |
| 1983 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 29 | 10 | 34.5% | 6 |
| 1981 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 26 | 6 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 1979 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | 7 |
| 1977 | 23 | 3 | 13.0% | 14 |
| 1976 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 10 |
| 1975 | 27 | 8 | 29.6% | 11 |
| 1974 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 1973 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1968 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1957 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 1956 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1953 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 15:30 |
Molde FK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.4% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 17:15 |
Lillestrøm SK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 15:00 |
Molde FK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 16.2% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 18:15 |
Molde FK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 17:00 |
Molde FK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.2% | NOR · Norwegian Football Cup |
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 13:30 |
SK Brann
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.4% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 16:00 |
Sandefjord Fotball
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Fri, 20 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Nov 18:00 |
Molde FK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 21.8% |
|
| Sat, 28 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Nov 17:00 |
Rosenborg BK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Fri, 04 Dec 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Dec 18:00 |
Molde FK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.