Lugano
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 494 matches (Jul 2015 – Oct 2026), Lugano drew 126 where the draw model expected 117.2 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 119.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 15 May 2022 → 09 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 03 Dec 2017 → 08 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 15 Feb 2025 → 06 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 19 Dec 2021 → 20 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 26 Sep 2021 → 05 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 03 Nov 2024 → 15 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 01 Nov 2023 → 14 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 25 May 2023 → 16 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 26 Aug 2017 → 20 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 26 Feb 2017 → 30 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super League | 411 | 108 | 26.3% | 2 | 14 |
| Swiss Cup | 306 | 51 | 16.7% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 2 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 7 |
| 2025 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 2024 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2023 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 16 |
| 2021 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 11 |
| 2020 | 32 | 16 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 46 | 18 | 39.1% | 6 |
| 2018 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2017 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 2016 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2015 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2014 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2010 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2003 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2002 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2001 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2000 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1999 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1996 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1994 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1982 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1980 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1979 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1976 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1972 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1970 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1968 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1967 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1951 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1945 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1944 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1943 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1942 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1941 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1940 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1935 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1933 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1931 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 16:45 |
Lugano
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.6% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 16:45 |
Getafe CF
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
Lugano
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.