| Figure | Lugano | FK Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade) | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw run | 2 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max N | 16 | 12 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debt | 0.46 | 0.22 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50 | 24.0% | 18.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100 | 22.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all time | 21.9% | 20.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw score | 0.151 | 0.000 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rank | 1,042 | — | position in that ranking |
These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.