Bayer Leverkusen
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 572 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Bayer Leverkusen drew 126 where the draw model expected 122.4 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 138.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 25 Sep 2001 → 09 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 11 Nov 2000 → 14 Apr 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 20 Apr 2013 → 02 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 04 Nov 2012 → 19 Jan 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 27 Nov 2002 → 11 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 18 Feb 1995 → 27 May 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 21 Sep 2023 → 30 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 26 Nov 2019 → 23 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 02 May 2015 → 29 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 06 Nov 2022 → 23 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 1126 | 280 | 24.9% | 1 | 19 |
| UEFA Europa League | 143 | 32 | 22.4% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Champions League | 135 | 32 | 23.7% | 1 | 13 |
| DFB-Pokal | 68 | 15 | 22.1% | 4 | 9 |
| Club Friendlies | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | 7 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 0 | 4 |
| DFL-Supercup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2025 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 9 |
| 2024 | 56 | 14 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 55 | 10 | 18.2% | 14 |
| 2022 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 7 |
| 2021 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 13 |
| 2019 | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | 8 |
| 2018 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 9 |
| 2017 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 8 |
| 2016 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 12 |
| 2015 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 14 |
| 2014 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 5 |
| 2013 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 16 |
| 2012 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 14 |
| 2011 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 10 |
| 2010 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 5 |
| 2009 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 5 |
| 2008 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 12 |
| 2007 | 47 | 6 | 12.8% | 11 |
| 2006 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 8 |
| 2005 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2004 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 6 |
| 2003 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 10 |
| 2002 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 11 |
| 2001 | 44 | 6 | 13.6% | 18 |
| 2000 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 8 |
| 1999 | 41 | 17 | 41.5% | 5 |
| 1998 | 38 | 15 | 39.5% | 6 |
| 1997 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 1996 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 9 |
| 1995 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 15 |
| 1994 | 43 | 16 | 37.2% | 5 |
| 1993 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 7 |
| 1990 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1988 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 1986 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.