What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 108 matches (Aug 1995 – Sep 2026), Leça drew 26 where the draw model expected 28.4 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 27.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 01 Dec 1997 → 15 Mar 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 03 Nov 1996 → 12 Jan 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 20 Jan 1996 → 10 Mar 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 01 Sep 1996 → 28 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 06 Apr 1996 → 05 May 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 10 Dec 1995 → 05 Jan 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 13 Apr 1997 → 04 May 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 22 Oct 1995 → 18 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 03 Sep 1995 → 01 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 19 Oct 1997 → 09 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 102 | 24 | 23.5% | 2 | 15 |
| Taça de Portugal | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1998 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 1997 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1996 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 7 |
| 1995 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
Penafiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 21.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.