Jagiellonia Białystok
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 479 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), Jagiellonia Białystok drew 122 where the draw model expected 125.9 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 126.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 24 Nov 2017 → 29 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 21 Sep 2020 → 07 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 23 Oct 2016 → 11 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 23 May 2026 → 03 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 25 May 2024 → 03 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 23 Jul 2016 → 28 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 17 May 2015 → 02 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 19 Oct 2019 → 08 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 09 May 2018 → 26 Aug 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 23 Apr 2019 → 27 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekstraklasa | 497 | 137 | 27.6% | 9 | 17 |
| Polish Cup | 111 | 28 | 25.2% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Conference League | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 12 |
| 2025 | 56 | 16 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2024 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 12 |
| 2023 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2022 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 5 |
| 2021 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2020 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 11 |
| 2019 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 9 |
| 2018 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 12 |
| 2017 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 5 |
| 2016 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 11 |
| 2015 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 11 |
| 2014 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 7 |
| 2013 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 17 | 11 | 64.7% | 2 |
| 2011 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2003 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2000 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1994 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 19:00 |
Jagiellonia Białystok
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.8% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 19:00 |
Jagiellonia Białystok
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 17:45 |
Levski Sofia
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.