FC Ingolstadt 04
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 401 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), FC Ingolstadt 04 drew 111 where the draw model expected 106.5 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 107.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 08 Mar 2026 → 01 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 21 Jun 2020 → 17 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 22 Dec 2018 → 06 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 03 Dec 2016 → 04 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 19 Apr 2013 → 23 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 19 Aug 2011 → 26 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 17 Oct 2010 → 28 Nov 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 04 Oct 2025 → 29 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 30 Jan 2021 → 13 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 21 Apr 2019 → 27 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 306 | 95 | 31.1% | 1 | 11 |
| 3. Liga | 235 | 69 | 29.4% | 5 | 11 |
| Bundesliga | 68 | 18 | 26.5% | 0 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2025 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2024 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2023 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2021 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 7 |
| 2020 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 11 |
| 2019 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 10 |
| 2018 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2017 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2015 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2014 | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 5 |
| 2013 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2012 | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 6 |
| 2011 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 9 |
| 2010 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2008 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 6 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.