What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 102 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Gibraltar drew 15 where the draw model expected 16.2 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 22.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 12 Jun 2022 → 03 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 06 Sep 2018 → 18 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 01 Sep 2016 → 10 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 22 Mar 2025 → 17 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 04 Jun 2014 → 28 Jun 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 01 Sep 2021 → 16 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 16 Jul 1995 → 22 Jul 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 11 Mar 2011 → 30 Jun 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 29 Jun 2003 → 04 Jul 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 29 Jun 1997 → 03 Jul 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Island Games | 44 | 4 | 9.1% | 0 | 6 |
| Friendly | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 2 | 2 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 28 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 26 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 10 |
| UEFA Nations League | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 0 | 6 |
| FIFI Wild Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 2020 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2015 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2014 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2013 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2011 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2005 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2001 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2000 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1997 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1995 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1993 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 01 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Oct 18:45 | Malta | vs | Gibraltar | – / – / – | 20.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.