What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 15 Feb 2003 → 17 May 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 16 Oct 2022 → 29 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 24 Nov 2007 → 26 Jan 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 17 Mar 2007 → 26 Sep 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 18 Nov 2006 → 09 Feb 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 02 Aug 2025 → 26 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 26 Feb 2012 → 28 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 23 Jan 2011 → 02 Apr 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 17 May 2026 → 05 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 20 Sep 2016 → 19 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 453 | 104 | 23.0% | 4 | 14 |
| KNVB Cup | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 1 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 9 |
| 2025 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 11 |
| 2024 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2023 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 6 |
| 2022 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 8 |
| 2021 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 7 |
| 2018 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2017 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2016 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2015 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2014 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2012 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 2011 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 2010 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 6 |
| 2009 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2008 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2007 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 12 |
| 2006 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2003 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 14 |
| 2002 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 5 |
Over 300 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Excelsior Rotterdam drew 72 where the draw model expected 63.1 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 68.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.