Eastleigh
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 548 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Eastleigh drew 149 where the draw model expected 144.2 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 138.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 29 Dec 2018 → 22 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 10 Apr 2018 → 04 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 08 Oct 2022 → 10 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 21 Mar 2015 → 11 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 29 Mar 2024 → 24 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 05 Oct 2021 → 11 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 21 Feb 2026 → 28 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 23 Sep 2023 → 04 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 26 Feb 2022 → 15 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 06 Feb 2016 → 15 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | 550 | 149 | 27.1% | 1 | 19 |
| FA Cup | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 8 |
| 2024 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 10 |
| 2023 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2022 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 12 |
| 2021 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 10 |
| 2020 | 24 | 8 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2019 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 18 |
| 2018 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 14 |
| 2017 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 6 |
| 2016 | 52 | 18 | 34.6% | 9 |
| 2015 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 11 |
| 2014 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 6 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 | AFC Hornchurch | vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Eastleigh
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Forest Green Rovers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Barrow
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.