Chesterfield
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 562 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Chesterfield drew 130 where the draw model expected 145.8 from those particular fixtures — about 16 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 146.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 03 Oct 2023 → 06 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 05 Sep 2009 → 16 Jan 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 01 Oct 2016 → 30 Dec 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 14 Apr 2018 → 04 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 19 Sep 2015 → 28 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 07 Feb 2015 → 06 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 16 Mar 2002 → 31 Aug 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 20 Apr 1996 → 14 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 11 Sep 1993 → 20 Nov 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 26 Oct 2024 → 01 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 690 | 189 | 27.4% | 5 | 16 |
| League Two | 553 | 155 | 28.0% | 4 | 19 |
| National League | 262 | 62 | 23.7% | 7 | 18 |
| FA Cup | 241 | 55 | 22.8% | 2 | 6 |
| League Cup | 135 | 27 | 20.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 8 |
| 2025 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 12 |
| 2023 | 52 | 8 | 15.4% | 13 |
| 2022 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2021 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 12 |
| 2020 | 23 | 3 | 13.0% | 10 |
| 2019 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 15 |
| 2017 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2016 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 16 |
| 2015 | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | 14 |
| 2014 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 7 |
| 2013 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 7 |
| 2012 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 11 |
| 2011 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 8 |
| 2010 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 11 |
| 2009 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 18 |
| 2008 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 12 |
| 2007 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 7 |
| 2006 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 2005 | 50 | 17 | 34.0% | 13 |
| 2004 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 8 |
| 2003 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 8 |
| 2002 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 14 |
| 2001 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2000 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 8 |
| 1999 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 1998 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 1997 | 61 | 23 | 37.7% | 10 |
| 1996 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 14 |
| 1995 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 8 |
| 1994 | 51 | 18 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 1993 | 24 | 4 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 1992 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1991 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1985 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1976 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1972 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1971 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1964 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1963 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1960 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1951 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1929 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1907 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1906 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1901 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1896 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Crawley Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Port Vale
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:45 |
Chesterfield
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Chesterfield
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.7% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 19:45 |
Newport County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.