Chelsea
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 693 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Chelsea drew 153 where the draw model expected 154.8 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 168.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 10 Jan 1998 → 15 Aug 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 22 | 16 Sep 2016 → 28 Jan 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 21 | 24 Mar 2010 → 03 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 18 Feb 2017 → 22 Jul 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 15 Aug 2009 → 31 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 09 Apr 2006 → 27 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 03 Mar 2020 → 08 Aug 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 17 Apr 2025 → 24 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 02 Mar 2022 → 24 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 16 May 2026 → 09 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1267 | 310 | 24.5% | 1 | 20 |
| FA Cup | 432 | 102 | 23.6% | 3 | 6 |
| League Cup | 233 | 52 | 22.3% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 211 | 55 | 26.1% | 6 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 1 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 1 | 7 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 0 | 4 |
| FA Community Shield | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Conference League | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 13 | 13 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42 | 6 | 14.3% | 12 |
| 2025 | 65 | 12 | 18.5% | 13 |
| 2024 | 60 | 14 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 2023 | 57 | 15 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2022 | 61 | 14 | 23.0% | 13 |
| 2021 | 68 | 17 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2020 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 15 |
| 2019 | 69 | 15 | 21.7% | 12 |
| 2018 | 59 | 14 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2017 | 57 | 8 | 14.0% | 18 |
| 2016 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 2015 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 56 | 11 | 19.6% | 11 |
| 2013 | 64 | 12 | 18.8% | 10 |
| 2012 | 67 | 16 | 23.9% | 9 |
| 2011 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2010 | 53 | 6 | 11.3% | 21 |
| 2009 | 61 | 14 | 23.0% | 16 |
| 2008 | 60 | 18 | 30.0% | 8 |
| 2007 | 63 | 21 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2006 | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | 16 |
| 2005 | 58 | 10 | 17.2% | 10 |
| 2004 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 12 |
| 2003 | 52 | 7 | 13.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2001 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 9 |
| 2000 | 55 | 15 | 27.3% | 10 |
| 1999 | 58 | 15 | 25.9% | 9 |
| 1998 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 26 |
| 1997 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 11 |
| 1996 | 48 | 18 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1995 | 50 | 21 | 42.0% | 6 |
| 1994 | 58 | 16 | 27.6% | 12 |
| 1993 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 9 |
| 1992 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1990 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1985 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1984 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1983 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1982 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1976 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1975 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1972 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1971 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 8 |
| 1969 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1968 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1967 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1966 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1965 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 4 |
| 1964 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1955 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1952 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1951 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1939 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1931 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1920 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1915 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1914 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1912 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1908 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1907 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Chelsea
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 11:30 |
Everton
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 16:30 |
Chelsea
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.8% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 20:00 |
Liverpool
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.9% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 12:30 |
Chelsea
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 14:00 |
Sunderland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 12 Dec 2026 | ||||||
| 12 Dec 15:00 |
Manchester City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.1% |
|
| Sat, 24 Apr 2027 | ||||||
| 24 Apr 14:00 |
Chelsea
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.