Carrarese Calcio
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 332 matches (Jul 2016 – Sep 2026), Carrarese Calcio drew 94 where the draw model expected 100.8 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 101.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 19 Mar 2022 → 19 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 16 Dec 2018 → 02 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 28 Mar 2024 → 22 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 01 Nov 2020 → 19 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 08 Jan 2023 → 19 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 13 Mar 2021 → 25 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 29 Dec 2024 → 15 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 16 Mar 2019 → 04 May 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 27 Aug 2017 → 04 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 15 Apr 2023 → 20 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 240 | 65 | 27.1% | 5 | 15 |
| Serie B | 81 | 27 | 33.3% | 3 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 6 |
| 2024 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 12 |
| 2023 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2022 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 15 |
| 2021 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 8 |
| 2020 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 9 |
| 2019 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2018 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2017 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 15:15 |
Calcio Padova
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 32.3% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 13:00 |
Carrarese Calcio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 33.5% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 14:00 |
Palermo
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.2% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:00 |
Carrarese Calcio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 31.6% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 16:15 |
Hellas Verona
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 16:15 |
Carrarese Calcio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 33.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.