Bolton Wanderers
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 584 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Bolton Wanderers drew 151 where the draw model expected 157.5 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 155.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 05 Mar 2011 → 26 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 02 Feb 2019 → 03 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 27 Sep 2016 → 31 Dec 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 26 Oct 2008 → 17 Jan 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 27 Dec 1995 → 23 Mar 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 11 Nov 2000 → 28 Jan 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 16 Sep 2014 → 07 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 23 Feb 2013 → 20 Apr 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 04 Mar 2025 → 21 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 19 Aug 2017 → 14 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 560 | 166 | 29.6% | 6 | 17 |
| Premier League | 494 | 128 | 25.9% | 0 | 28 |
| FA Cup | 409 | 100 | 24.5% | 2 | 5 |
| League One | 310 | 82 | 26.5% | 1 | 15 |
| League Cup | 201 | 45 | 22.4% | 1 | 8 |
| League Two | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 1 | 3 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 6 |
| 2025 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 10 |
| 2021 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 8 |
| 2020 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2019 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 18 |
| 2018 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 5 |
| 2017 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 11 |
| 2016 | 56 | 10 | 17.9% | 17 |
| 2015 | 57 | 21 | 36.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 12 |
| 2013 | 49 | 16 | 32.7% | 12 |
| 2012 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 11 |
| 2011 | 46 | 4 | 8.7% | 33 |
| 2010 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 11 |
| 2009 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2008 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 12 |
| 2007 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 7 |
| 2006 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2004 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 10 |
| 2003 | 42 | 16 | 38.1% | 6 |
| 2002 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 9 |
| 2001 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 5 |
| 2000 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 1999 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 1998 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 1997 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 1996 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 13 |
| 1995 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 7 |
| 1994 | 58 | 14 | 24.1% | 10 |
| 1993 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 1992 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1990 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1989 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1976 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1972 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 |
| 1971 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1959 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1958 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1953 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1949 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1946 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1939 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1934 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1933 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1932 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1925 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1924 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1923 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1914 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1905 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1904 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1900 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1897 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1896 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1894 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1893 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1891 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1890 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1887 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1886 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1885 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1884 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1883 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1882 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1881 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Bolton Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 18:45 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Southampton
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 19:00 |
Bolton Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Bolton Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.2% |
|
| Tue, 03 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Nov 19:45 |
Charlton Athletic
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Fri, 06 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Nov 20:00 |
Derby County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.