CF Os Belenenses
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 284 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), CF Os Belenenses drew 90 where the draw model expected 73.4 from those particular fixtures — about 17 more, or 2.3 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 71.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 30 Sep 2006 → 21 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 31 Dec 1994 → 19 Mar 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 26 Apr 2021 → 21 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 27 Feb 2017 → 07 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 10 Mar 2007 → 20 May 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 11 Feb 2006 → 14 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 15 Dec 2019 → 22 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 30 Aug 2019 → 01 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 11 Sep 2017 → 01 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 17 Jan 2010 → 28 Mar 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 796 | 229 | 28.8% | 0 | 11 |
| UEFA Europa League | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 2 | 2 |
| Taça de Portugal | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 2 | 3 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 5 |
| 2021 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 10 |
| 2020 | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 8 |
| 2019 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 9 |
| 2018 | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 5 |
| 2017 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 2016 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 5 |
| 2015 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 2014 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 2013 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 5 |
| 2010 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2009 | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2006 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 11 |
| 2005 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 9 |
| 2004 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 2003 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 5 |
| 2002 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 8 |
| 2001 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2000 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 7 |
| 1999 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 1998 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 5 |
| 1997 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 1996 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 6 |
| 1995 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 1994 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 9 |
| 1989 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1962 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1961 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 |
CF Os Belenenses
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vs |
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– / – / – | 20.8% |
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Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.