What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 634 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), FC Bayern München drew 93 where the draw model expected 100.1 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 151.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 17 Aug 2021 → 12 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 30 | 15 Apr 1995 → 04 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 29 | 05 Feb 2005 → 01 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 26 | 10 May 2025 → 04 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 25 | 19 Oct 2013 → 08 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 23 | 16 Feb 2020 → 18 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 23 | 18 Dec 2012 → 01 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 23 | 08 Apr 2000 → 21 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 21 | 28 Oct 2017 → 20 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 19 | 22 Oct 2019 → 05 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 1126 | 218 | 19.4% | 2 | 25 |
| UEFA Champions League | 421 | 84 | 20.0% | 1 | 19 |
| DFB-Pokal | 96 | 10 | 10.4% | 7 | 12 |
| UEFA Europa League | 68 | 13 | 19.1% | 1 | 9 |
| Club Friendlies | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 1 | 6 |
| DFL-Supercup | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 0 | 5 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 0 | 2 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 10 |
| 2025 | 61 | 8 | 13.1% | 26 |
| 2024 | 54 | 8 | 14.8% | 9 |
| 2023 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2022 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 10 |
| 2021 | 58 | 6 | 10.3% | 25 |
| 2020 | 50 | 6 | 12.0% | 23 |
| 2019 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 14 |
| 2018 | 56 | 8 | 14.3% | 13 |
| 2017 | 54 | 8 | 14.8% | 12 |
| 2016 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 10 |
| 2015 | 56 | 6 | 10.7% | 17 |
| 2014 | 53 | 7 | 13.2% | 12 |
| 2013 | 56 | 4 | 7.1% | 22 |
| 2012 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 18 |
| 2011 | 47 | 5 | 10.6% | 14 |
| 2010 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 2009 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 8 |
| 2008 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 6 |
| 2007 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 7 |
| 2006 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 11 |
| 2005 | 44 | 4 | 9.1% | 29 |
| 2004 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 14 |
| 2003 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 8 |
| 2001 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 23 |
| 1999 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 7 |
| 1998 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 10 |
| 1997 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 10 |
| 1996 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 11 |
| 1995 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 30 |
| 1994 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 1993 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1991 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1990 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 1987 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1986 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1985 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1982 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1981 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1980 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1977 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1976 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1974 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1972 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1966 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.