Altrincham
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 356 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Altrincham drew 83 where the draw model expected 92.6 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 90.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 06 Jan 2024 → 01 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 03 Apr 2026 → 29 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 11 Apr 2006 → 16 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 09 Aug 2025 → 01 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 02 Mar 2007 → 21 Apr 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 01 Nov 2025 → 17 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 31 Oct 2020 → 12 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 15 Feb 2025 → 22 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 21 Aug 2021 → 09 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 23 Jan 2021 → 02 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | 645 | 161 | 25.0% | 17 | 18 |
| FA Cup | 81 | 17 | 21.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | 17 |
| 2025 | 48 | 7 | 14.6% | 13 |
| 2024 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 18 |
| 2023 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2022 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 5 |
| 2021 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2019 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 22 | 9 | 40.9% | 4 |
| 2015 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 9 |
| 2014 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 7 |
| 2012 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 6 |
| 2010 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 8 |
| 2009 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 9 |
| 2008 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 13 |
| 2006 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 14 |
| 2005 | 23 | 8 | 34.8% | 5 |
| 2001 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1994 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1982 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1972 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Boreham Wood
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 11:30 |
Altrincham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Yeovil Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.8% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 19:45 |
Altrincham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Altrincham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.