What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 170 matches (Feb 2015 – Aug 2024), VfR Aalen drew 61 where the draw model expected 49.2 from those particular fixtures — about 12 more, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 46.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11 Mar 2017 → 06 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 05 May 2012 → 07 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 11 Dec 2011 → 17 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 31 Mar 2018 → 28 Jul 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 24 Oct 2014 → 14 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 15 Apr 2016 → 06 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 19 Dec 2015 → 27 Feb 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 06 Apr 2019 → 11 May 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 21 Mar 2009 → 11 Apr 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 15 Sep 2018 → 06 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 266 | 92 | 34.6% | 0 | 11 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 102 | 33 | 32.4% | 4 | 9 |
| DFB-Pokal | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2018 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 8 |
| 2017 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 11 |
| 2016 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 7 |
| 2015 | 38 | 19 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2014 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2013 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 5 |
| 2012 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 11 |
| 2011 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 2010 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2008 | 20 | 11 | 55.0% | 3 |
