A Quelch
Over 124 matches (Aug 2016 – Mar 2026), A Quelch drew 35 where the draw model expected 32.8 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 31.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · National League | 124 | 35 | 28.2% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2024/25 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2022/23 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% |
| 2021/22 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
| 2020/21 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% |
| 2019/20 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
| 2018/19 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% |
| 2017/18 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% |
| 2016/17 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar 2026 | Aldershot Town | 1–2 | Boreham Wood | A | ENG · National League |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Truro City | 1–2 | Scunthorpe United | A | ENG · National League |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Yeovil Town | 1–0 | Woking | H | ENG · National League |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 1–0 | Ebbsfleet United | H | ENG · National League |
| 21 Feb 2023 | Dorking Wanderers | 3–2 | Torquay United | H | ENG · National League |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Boreham Wood | 1–1 | Halifax Town | D | ENG · National League |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Yeovil Town | 2–2 | Maidstone United | D | ENG · National League |
| 24 Jan 2023 | Bromley | 1–1 | Dagenham & Redbridge | D | ENG · National League |
| 02 Jan 2023 | Solihull Moors | 1–2 | Wrexham | A | ENG · National League |
| 26 Nov 2022 | Torquay United | 1–1 | Gateshead | D | ENG · National League |
| 25 Oct 2022 | Bromley | 1–3 | Barnet | A | ENG · National League |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Boreham Wood | 1–1 | Wrexham | D | ENG · National League |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Wealdstone | 1–1 | Torquay United | D | ENG · National League |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 0–5 | Notts County | A | ENG · National League |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Barnet | 3–1 | Eastleigh | H | ENG · National League |
| 20 Aug 2022 | Southend United | 1–0 | Oldham Athletic | H | ENG · National League |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Woking | 2–0 | Scunthorpe United | H | ENG · National League |
| 02 May 2022 | Woking | 0–3 | King’s Lynn Town | A | ENG · National League |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Dover Athletic | 0–1 | Altrincham | A | ENG · National League |
| 26 Apr 2022 | Weymouth | 1–6 | Wrexham | A | ENG · National League |
| 09 Apr 2022 | Aldershot Town | 2–1 | Boreham Wood | H | ENG · National League |
| 02 Apr 2022 | Chesterfield | 1–4 | Grimsby Town | A | ENG · National League |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Bromley | 0–0 | Wrexham | D | ENG · National League |
| 08 Mar 2022 | Yeovil Town | 0–3 | Dagenham & Redbridge | A | ENG · National League |
| 05 Mar 2022 | Eastleigh | 4–1 | Wealdstone | H | ENG · National League |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Maidenhead United | 2–0 | Boreham Wood | H | ENG · National League |
| 15 Feb 2022 | Bromley | 1–3 | Stockport County | A | ENG · National League |
| 25 Jan 2022 | Wealdstone | 0–0 | Notts County | D | ENG · National League |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Barnet | 1–4 | Chesterfield | A | ENG · National League |
| 11 Jan 2022 | Southend United | 2–1 | Yeovil Town | H | ENG · National League |
| 23 Nov 2021 | Weymouth | 2–3 | Woking | A | ENG · National League |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 0–1 | Yeovil Town | A | ENG · National League |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Aldershot Town | 2–3 | Bromley | A | ENG · National League |
| 05 Oct 2021 | Yeovil Town | 0–0 | Maidenhead United | D | ENG · National League |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Solihull Moors | 3–1 | Boreham Wood | H | ENG · National League |
| 14 Sep 2021 | Southend United | 2–3 | Aldershot Town | A | ENG · National League |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Torquay United | 0–4 | Woking | A | ENG · National League |
| 28 Aug 2021 | Maidenhead United | 2–0 | Dover Athletic | H | ENG · National League |
| 08 May 2021 | Barnet | 1–4 | Notts County | A | ENG · National League |
| 03 May 2021 | Maidenhead United | 2–2 | Wrexham | D | ENG · National League |
| 27 Apr 2021 | Bromley | 1–2 | Chesterfield | A | ENG · National League |
| 17 Apr 2021 | Yeovil Town | 1–0 | Boreham Wood | H | ENG · National League |
| 05 Apr 2021 | Wealdstone | 5–1 | Barnet | H | ENG · National League |
| 23 Mar 2021 | Aldershot Town | 0–1 | Chesterfield | A | ENG · National League |
| 20 Mar 2021 | Eastleigh | 1–0 | Halifax Town | H | ENG · National League |
| 06 Mar 2021 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 2–2 | Boreham Wood | D | ENG · National League |
| 20 Feb 2021 | Bromley | 2–2 | Maidenhead United | D | ENG · National League |
| 09 Feb 2021 | Eastleigh | 1–0 | Yeovil Town | H | ENG · National League |
| 02 Feb 2021 | Torquay United | 1–2 | Altrincham | A | ENG · National League |
| 23 Jan 2021 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 3–2 | King’s Lynn Town | H | ENG · National League |