| Figure | Hornchurch | Tamworth | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 16 | 9 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 16 | 16 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.00 | 2.12 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 0.0% | 20.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 0.0% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 0.0% | 26.7% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.396 | 0.461 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 231 | 145 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 25 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.12 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.857 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 17 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 35 |
| 3 | Fylde | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 32 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 21 | +16 | 31 |
| 5 | Worthing | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 31 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 31 |
| 7 | Carlisle United | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 29 |
| 8 | Southend United | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 29 |
| 9 | Halifax Town | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 27 |
| 10 | Barrow | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 25 |
| 11 | Sutton United | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 | Woking | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 | Aldershot Town | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 21 |
| 16 | Hornchurch | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 21 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 19 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 17 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 | Boston United | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 18 |
| 21 | Tamworth | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 17 |
| 22 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 15 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 13 |
| 24 | Scunthorpe United | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 10 |
| 25 | Gateshead | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 34 | -25 | 4 |