| Figure | Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 9 | 8 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 25 | 19 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 2.18 | 1.36 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 26.0% | 14.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 23.0% | 19.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 27.8% | 24.3% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.385 | 0.319 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 240 | 384 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 17 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 3.54 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.704 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 4 |