| Figure | SC Braga | Arouca | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 5 | 2 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 26 | 17 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.23 | 0.48 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 24.0% | 22.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 25.0% | 25.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 23.5% | 25.8% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.235 | 0.159 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 630 | 1,006 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 7 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.71 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.394 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 30 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 | CD Santa Clara | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Académico de Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Famalicão | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 | CF Estrela da Amadora | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória de Guimarães | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | CS Marítimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | CD Nacional | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia AC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | GD Estoril Praia | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |