Sunderland vs Birmingham City

Match ☆ 10 Mar 1998

ENG · Championship · 1997

ENG Sunderland

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Current league place

#3 / 24 · ENG · Championship · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 0–0

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Sunderland	Birmingham City	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	2	1	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	15	16	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.45	0.29	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	20.0%	30.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	24.0%	29.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	26.1%	25.0%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	3		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.74		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 10 Mar 1998, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Sunderland 1,732 after: 1,728

Birmingham City 1,666 after: 1,670

Rating gap +131 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.3% 100–149 · 87,157 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.05 home – away

Home win 48.9%

Draw 26.4% every level score added up

Away win 24.6%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 26.1% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 26.4% form only

This Elo gap said 25.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.1% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.1% – 28.1% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 26.1% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Championship · 19971998 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Nottingham Forest Champion	46	28	10	8	82	42	+40	94
2	Middlesbrough	46	27	10	9	77	41	+36	91
3	Sunderland	46	26	12	8	86	50	+36	90
4	Charlton Athletic	46	26	10	10	80	49	+31	88
5	Ipswich Town	46	23	14	9	77	43	+34	83
6	Birmingham City	46	19	17	10	60	35	+25	74
7	Sheffield United	46	19	17	10	69	54	+15	74
8	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	18	11	17	57	53	+4	65
9	Stockport County	46	19	8	19	71	69	+2	65
10	West Bromwich Albion	46	16	13	17	50	56	-6	61
11	Crewe Alexandra	46	18	5	23	58	65	-7	59
12	Oxford United	46	16	10	20	60	64	-4	58
13	Bradford City	46	14	15	17	46	59	-13	57
14	Tranmere Rovers	46	14	14	18	54	57	-3	56
15	Norwich City	46	14	13	19	52	69	-17	55
16	Huddersfield Town	46	14	11	21	50	72	-22	53
17	Bury	46	11	19	16	42	58	-16	52
18	Swindon Town	46	14	10	22	42	73	-31	52
19	Port Vale	46	13	10	23	56	66	-10	49
20	Portsmouth	46	13	10	23	51	63	-12	49
21	Queens Park Rangers	46	10	19	17	51	63	-12	49
22	Manchester City	46	12	12	22	56	57	-1	48
23	Stoke City	46	11	13	22	44	74	-30	46
24	Reading	46	11	9	26	39	78	-39	42

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