What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 113 matches (Aug 2021 – Sep 2026), Vizela drew 32 where the draw model expected 28.0 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 28.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 20 Nov 2021 → 30 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 10 Jan 2024 → 18 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 13 Nov 2022 → 05 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 09 Mar 2024 → 20 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 25 Feb 2023 → 07 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 02 Sep 2022 → 09 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 02 Apr 2022 → 30 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 3 | 24 Nov 2023 → 08 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 21 Oct 2023 → 05 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 27 Aug 2023 → 16 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 102 | 30 | 29.4% | 0 | 9 |
| Taça de Portugal | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 8 |
| 2023 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2021 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Atlético CP | vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.