What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 174 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), VfB Stuttgart II drew 44 where the draw model expected 48.0 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 48.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 08 Aug 2009 → 04 Dec 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 13 Dec 2025 → 04 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 27 Feb 2010 → 21 Apr 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 26 Apr 2026 → 16 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 07 Mar 2015 → 08 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 19 Dec 2008 → 20 Mar 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 23 Feb 2025 → 08 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 23 May 2015 → 12 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 11 Aug 2013 → 21 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 31 Aug 2024 → 19 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 387 | 100 | 25.8% | 0 | 17 |
| Regionalliga Südwest | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 2 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | 12 |
| 2025 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2017 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2016 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 9 |
| 2014 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2013 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2012 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2011 | 43 | 17 | 39.5% | 5 |
| 2010 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 12 |
| 2009 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 17 |
| 2008 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 5 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.