Tamworth
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 108 matches (Aug 2024 – Sep 2026), Tamworth drew 28 where the draw model expected 28.1 from those particular fixtures — about 0 fewer, or 0.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 27.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 18 Aug 2012 → 06 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 18 Oct 2025 → 03 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 24 Sep 2005 → 10 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 24 Feb 2026 → 03 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 26 Aug 2024 → 19 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 05 Feb 2011 → 19 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 15 Mar 2025 → 26 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 25 Feb 2014 → 25 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 03 Oct 2009 → 28 Nov 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 17 Feb 2007 → 17 Mar 2007 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | 419 | 112 | 26.7% | 5 | 16 |
| FA Cup | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 10 |
| 2025 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 12 |
| 2024 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 10 |
| 2014 | 23 | 3 | 13.0% | 8 |
| 2013 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 6 |
| 2012 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 16 |
| 2011 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 10 |
| 2010 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 6 |
| 2009 | 24 | 10 | 41.7% | 8 |
| 2007 | 24 | 4 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2006 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 8 |
| 2005 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 12 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1998 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Hartlepool United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Tamworth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 18:45 |
Gateshead
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 19:45 |
Tamworth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Tamworth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.