Rio Ave
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 389 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Rio Ave drew 122 where the draw model expected 99.8 from those particular fixtures — about 22 more, or 2.6 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 6 times running. A flat league average would have expected 98.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 17 Mar 2013 → 14 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 21 Nov 2008 → 28 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 14 Sep 1996 → 05 Jan 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 30 Sep 2011 → 22 Jan 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 29 Jan 2023 → 02 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 18 Dec 2010 → 06 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 21 Nov 1999 → 30 Jan 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 11 Jul 2026 → 06 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 28 Dec 2025 → 22 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 22 Feb 2025 → 13 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 799 | 247 | 30.9% | 1 | 12 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 0 | 7 |
| Taça de Portugal | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28 | 5 | 17.9% | 8 |
| 2025 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 8 |
| 2024 | 37 | 19 | 51.3% | 5 |
| 2023 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2022 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2021 | 26 | 9 | 34.6% | 5 |
| 2020 | 31 | 11 | 35.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2018 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 8 |
| 2017 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2016 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 7 |
| 2015 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2014 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 7 |
| 2013 | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 12 |
| 2012 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 8 |
| 2011 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 8 |
| 2010 | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 4 |
| 2009 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 8 |
| 2008 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2006 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2005 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 7 |
| 2004 | 34 | 16 | 47.1% | 5 |
| 2003 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2000 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 1999 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 1998 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 5 |
| 1997 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 7 |
| 1996 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 11 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 14:30 |
Rio Ave
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 17:00 | Louletano | vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 18:00 |
Rio Ave
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 18:00 |
Académico de Viseu
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 20:30 |
Rio Ave
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.