What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 22 Oct 2026.
Over 551 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Porto drew 87 where the draw model expected 104.7 from those particular fixtures — about 18 fewer, or 1.9 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 134.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 06 Dec 2010 → 05 May 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 10 Jan 2016 → 10 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 15 Sep 2023 → 29 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 19 | 09 Nov 2002 → 16 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 18 | 26 Apr 2026 → 20 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 18 | 20 Mar 2022 → 13 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 17 | 22 Sep 2018 → 07 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 16 | 20 Oct 2025 → 02 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 16 | 07 Nov 2021 → 06 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 16 | 09 Mar 2010 → 25 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 1064 | 173 | 16.3% | 14 | 31 |
| UEFA Champions League | 274 | 60 | 21.9% | 3 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 118 | 23 | 19.5% | 1 | 9 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 6 | 6 |
| Taça de Portugal | 29 | 2 | 6.9% | 0 | 13 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 18 |
| 2025 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 51 | 9 | 17.7% | 9 |
| 2023 | 50 | 4 | 8.0% | 19 |
| 2022 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 18 |
| 2021 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 39 | 4 | 10.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 13 |
| 2018 | 42 | 4 | 9.5% | 15 |
| 2017 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 23 |
| 2015 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 11 |
| 2014 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2013 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 12 |
| 2012 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2011 | 45 | 6 | 13.3% | 21 |
| 2010 | 42 | 6 | 14.3% | 16 |
| 2009 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2008 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2007 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 6 |
| 2006 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 12 |
| 2005 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 9 |
| 2004 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 11 |
| 2002 | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | 11 |
| 2001 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 12 |
| 2000 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 7 |
| 1999 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 11 |
| 1998 | 42 | 4 | 9.5% | 15 |
| 1997 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 14 |
| 1996 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 1995 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 11 |
| 1994 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 9 |
| 1993 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1988 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1983 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | R | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Champions League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
☆
· ITL · UEFA Europa League
|
|||||
| ☆ 25 Apr 1984 |
Aberdeen
|
0–1 |
|
A | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Semi-final · Leg 2 |
| ☆ 11 Apr 1984 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Semi-final · Leg 1 |
| ☆ 21 Mar 1984 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
1–1 |
|
D | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Quarter-final · Leg 2 |
| ☆ 07 Mar 1984 |
Porto
|
3–2 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Quarter-final · Leg 1 |
| ☆ 02 Nov 1983 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 19 Oct 1983 |
Rangers
|
2–1 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 28 Sep 1983 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 14 Sep 1983 |
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
|
2–1 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 19 Aug 1982 |
Porto
|
3–2 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 05 Aug 1982 |
RSC Anderlecht
|
4–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 29 Jul 1982 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 15 Jul 1982 |
Utrecht
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 17 Mar 1982 |
Porto
|
2–2 |
|
D | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Quarter-final · Leg 2 |
| ☆ 03 Mar 1982 |
Standard Liège
|
2–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Quarter-final · Leg 1 |
| ☆ 04 Nov 1981 |
AS Roma
|
0–0 |
|
D | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 21 Oct 1981 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 30 Sep 1981 |
Porto
|
3–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 16 Sep 1981 |
Vejle BK
|
2–1 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 19 Aug 1980 |
Grasshopper Club Zürich
|
3–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 05 Aug 1980 |
Porto
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 29 Jul 1980 |
Dundalk
|
0–0 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 15 Jul 1980 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 07 Nov 1979 |
Real Madrid
|
1–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 24 Oct 1979 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 03 Oct 1979 |
AC Milan
|
0–1 |
|
A |
|
| ☆ 19 Sep 1979 |
Porto
|
0–0 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 27 Sep 1978 |
Porto
|
4–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 13 Sep 1978 |
AEK Athens
|
6–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 04 Oct 1977 |
RSC Anderlecht
|
3–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Quarter-final |
| ☆ 20 Sep 1977 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup Quarter-final |
| ☆ 09 Sep 1977 |
Manchester United
|
5–2 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 25 Aug 1977 |
Porto
|
4–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 19 Aug 1977 |
Porto
|
1–0 |
|
H | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 05 Aug 1977 |
1. FC Köln
|
2–2 |
|
D | ITL · UEFA Cup Winners' Cup |
| ☆ 29 Jul 1976 |
Schalke 04
|
3–2 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 15 Jul 1976 |
Porto
|
2–2 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 09 Sep 1975 |
Porto
|
2–1 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 25 Aug 1975 |
Hamburger SV
|
2–0 |
|
H |
|
| ☆ 19 Aug 1975 |
Porto
|
1–1 |
|
D |
|
| ☆ 05 Aug 1975 |
Dundee United
|
1–2 |
|
A |
|
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 24 Oct 19:30 |
Gil Vicente
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 31 Oct 20:30 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.6% |
|
| Wed, 04 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 04 Nov 20:00 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 08 Nov 18:00 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
| Tue, 24 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 24 Nov 20:00 |
Feyenoord
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 29 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 29 Nov 20:30 |
Porto
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.